What the numbers say
Two subscriptions, both shipped free. The deep plan takes 40% off the first order ($22.77) and 10% off each renewal ($34.16). The flat plan takes 20% off every order ($30.36). The deep plan's first order loses $2.29 and each renewal keeps $8.20; the flat plan's first order keeps $4.70 and each renewal keeps $4.70.
So the deep plan starts $6.99 behind and earns $3.50 more on every renewal a subscriber takes. If 70.0% take each next order, its subscriber earns $16.47 over twelve orders, where the flat plan's earns $15.45, and has caught up by order 7.
The deeper discount is there to win sign-ups. At that retention, to earn what the flat plan earns, it can lose 6.2% of its sign-ups. Retention decides between the two: the table shows three rates.
Nature's Sunshine's Subscribe & Thrive takes 25% off every subscription order and ships it free. Nature's Sunshine, Subscribe & Thrive, read 23 September 2026
The cost structure, and where it comes from
| Price | $37.95, a bottle of supplements. Nature's Sunshine homepage, read 23 September 2026 |
|---|---|
| Unit cost | $10.47. From the reported gross margin: “Gross margin in 2025 increased to 72.4% compared to 71.5% in 2024.” Nature's Sunshine, fourth quarter and full year 2025 results, read 23 September 2026 |
| Pick and pack | $3.20 per order and $0.48 for each extra item. Fulfill.com, 3PL pricing benchmarks (The Fulfillment Advisor 2025 survey of 600+ warehouses), read 23 September 2026 |
| Shipping label | USPS Ground Advantage, commercial, Zone 5, by weight rounded up to the pound: 1 lb $9.29 · 2 lb $10.50 · 3 lb $12.12 · 4 lb $13.89 · 5 lb $14.53. Packed weight is an assumption: 0.5 lb per unit. USPS Notice 123, USPS Ground Advantage Commercial, Zone 5 (effective 4 October 2026), read 13 October 2026 |
| Card fees | 2.9% + $0.30 per order: Shopify Payments' online rate for a standard card on the Basic plan in the United States. Higher plans pay a lower rate, and premium cards a higher one. Shopify's pricing page for the United States, online standard card rates, read 12 October 2026 Rates by plan and country |
| Refund reserve | 5%, Offer Suite's default assumption for consumables. NRF's all-category figure for online sales is 19.3%, but consumables are rarely returned; use your own rate. |
| Gift | A travel-size bottle: unit cost $5.24, retail $15.00. A half-size bottle, costed at half the full bottle's unit cost. |
The offer, as an agent writes it
An agent writes this offer as one document for Offer Suite's API, validated against the offer schema. Below is one option of it: what the buyer gets and the price it promises. Offer Suite checks with a real cart that checkout charges exactly the prices above.
Show one option 2 options · excerpt
{
"key": "deep-first-order",
"display": {
"title": "40% off your first order"
},
"lines": [
{
"role": "main",
"quantity": 1,
"purchase": {
"type": "subscription",
"intervalDays": 30
}
}
],
"pricing": {
"promise": {
"firstChargeCents": 2277,
"renewalChargeCents": 3416
}
}
}How Offer Suite validates, versions and publishes a document like this one: offer documents.
Questions
Is a deep first-order subscription discount profitable for supplement brands?
On these costs the first order at 40% off loses $2.29 and each renewal at 10% off keeps $8.20. Over twelve orders a subscriber earns $5.91 at 50.0% retention, earns $16.47 at 70.0% retention, earns $36.40 at 85.0% retention.
Should supplement brands discount a subscription's first order or every order?
Per subscriber, on these costs: at 50.0% retention the flat discount earns more ($9.40 against $5.91); at 70.0% retention the deep first-order discount earns more ($16.47 against $15.45); at 85.0% retention the deep first-order discount earns more ($36.40 against $26.88). The deep discount also has to be judged on the sign-ups it adds.