What the numbers say
20.0% off the first order ($32.00) with a mug in the first box, then 10.0% off every renewal ($36.00), shipped free. The first order keeps $0.20 and each renewal $8.37. A one-time buyer at full price, paying $9.29 for shipping, keeps $20.61.
If 70.0% of subscribers take each next order, a subscriber earns $19.34 over twelve orders, and never passes the one-time buyer in that time. Retention decides the offer: the table shows three rates.
Free shipping is part of the offer's cost here: every subscription order pays its $9.29 label. The welcome gift, a mug with a unit cost of $4.00, is paid once, on the first order only.
The cost structure, and where it comes from
| Price | $40.00, a bag of coffee. Offer Suite's dev store catalog |
|---|---|
| Unit cost | $12.00. “Single Bag: price 40.00, unit cost 12.0 · mug gift: unit cost 4.0, compare-at 18.00” Offer Suite's dev store catalog |
| Pick and pack | $3.20 per order and $0.48 for each extra item. Fulfill.com, 3PL pricing benchmarks (The Fulfillment Advisor 2025 survey of 600+ warehouses), read 23 September 2026 |
| Shipping label | USPS Ground Advantage, commercial, Zone 5, by weight rounded up to the pound: 1 lb $9.29 · 2 lb $10.50 · 3 lb $12.12 · 4 lb $13.89 · 5 lb $14.53. Packed weight is an assumption: 0.8 lb per unit. USPS Notice 123, USPS Ground Advantage Commercial, Zone 5 (effective 4 October 2026), read 13 October 2026 |
| Card fees | 2.9% + $0.30 per order: Shopify Payments' online rate for a standard card on the Basic plan in the United States. Higher plans pay a lower rate, and premium cards a higher one. Shopify's pricing page for the United States, online standard card rates, read 12 October 2026 Rates by plan and country |
| Refund reserve | 5%, Offer Suite's default assumption for consumables. NRF's all-category figure for online sales is 19.3%, but consumables are rarely returned; use your own rate. |
| Gift | A mug: unit cost $4.00, retail $18.00. The dev store's mug gift: unit cost $4.00, compare-at $18.00. |
The offer, as an agent writes it
An agent writes this offer as one document for Offer Suite's API, validated against the offer schema. Below is one option of it: what the buyer gets and the price it promises. Offer Suite checks with a real cart that checkout charges exactly the prices above.
Show one option 2 options · excerpt
{
"key": "subscribe",
"display": {
"title": "Subscribe and save"
},
"lines": [
{
"role": "main",
"quantity": 1,
"purchase": {
"type": "subscription",
"intervalDays": 30
}
},
{
"role": "gift",
"quantity": 1,
"purchase": {
"type": "one_time"
}
}
],
"pricing": {
"promise": {
"firstChargeCents": 3200,
"renewalChargeCents": 3600
}
}
}How Offer Suite validates, versions and publishes a document like this one: offer documents.
Questions
Is subscribe and save profitable for coffee brands?
On these costs the first order keeps $0.20 and each renewal keeps $8.37. If 70.0% of subscribers take each next order, a subscriber earns $19.34 over twelve orders, against $20.61 from a one-time buyer.
When is a subscriber worth more than a one-time buyer for coffee brands?
At 50.0% retention, not within twelve orders. At 70.0% retention, not within twelve orders. At 85.0% retention, from order 5.