What the numbers say
20.0% off the first order ($32.00) with a mug in the first box, then 10.0% off every renewal ($36.00), shipped free. The first order keeps $0.75 and each renewal $8.92. A one-time buyer at full price, paying $8.74 for shipping, keeps $20.65.
If 70.0% of subscribers take each next order, a subscriber earns $21.15 over twelve orders, and passes the one-time buyer at order 10. Retention decides the offer: the table shows three rates.
Free shipping is part of the offer's cost here: every subscription order pays its $8.74 label. The welcome gift, a mug with a unit cost of $4.00, is paid once, on the first order only.
The cost structure, and where it comes from
| Price | $40.00, a bag of coffee. Offer Suite's demo store catalog (offer-suite-demo.myshopify.com, docs/dev-store/catalog.json) |
|---|---|
| Unit cost | $12.00. “Single Bag: price 40.00, unit cost 12.0 · mug gift: unit cost 4.0, compare-at 18.00” Offer Suite's demo store catalog (offer-suite-demo.myshopify.com, docs/dev-store/catalog.json) |
| Pick and pack | $3.20 per order and $0.48 for each extra item. Fulfill.com, 3PL pricing benchmarks (The Fulfillment Advisor 2025 survey of 600+ warehouses), read September 23, 2026 |
| Shipping label | USPS Ground Advantage, commercial, Zone 5, by weight rounded up to the pound: 1 lb $8.74 · 2 lb $9.95 · 3 lb $11.57 · 4 lb $12.84 · 5 lb $13.48. Packed weight is an assumption: 0.8 lb per unit. USPS Notice 123, USPS Ground Advantage Commercial, Zone 5 (effective July 12, 2026), read September 23, 2026 |
| Card fees | 2.9% + $0.30 per order, a common online card rate. Shopify doesn't publish one rate: it depends on your plan and the card. An assumption. |
| Refund reserve | 5%, Offer Suite's default assumption for consumables. NRF's all-category figure for online sales is 19.3%, but consumables are rarely returned; use your own rate. |
| Gift | a mug: unit cost $4.00, retail $18.00. The demo store's mug gift: unit cost $4.00, compare-at $18.00. |
The offer document an agent would write
This is the offer as a document, the way an agent writes it for Offer Suite's API. It validates against the offer schema as it stands. Ids are placeholders, except the coffee ones, which are the demo store's real products; the discount is stated the way the offer states it, and Offer Suite checks with a real cart that checkout charges exactly the prices above.
Show the document offer.json · validates against the offer schema
{
"schema": "offer/1",
"recipe": null,
"identity": {
"code": "PB_COFFEE_SUBSCRIBE_AND_SAVE",
"experience": "pb-coffee-subscribe-and-save-v1",
"campaign": "cmp_playbook",
"presell": null,
"signature": null,
"carrier": {
"cartAttributes": [
"_oe_offer",
"_oe_version",
"_oe_code"
],
"lineProperties": [
"_oe_option",
"_oe_role"
],
"orderTags": [
"offer:PB_COFFEE_SUBSCRIBE_AND_SAVE",
"option:{optionKey}",
"v:{version}"
],
"passthroughKeys": []
}
},
"shop": {
"domain": "offer-suite-demo.myshopify.com",
"market": {
"country": "US",
"currency": "USD"
}
},
"campaignRef": null,
"rulesRef": null,
"selectionMode": "exclusive",
"axes": [],
"picks": [],
"options": [
{
"key": "one-time",
"label": "One-time",
"isDefault": false,
"surfaced": true,
"axisValues": {},
"unitCount": {
"value": 1,
"source": "declared"
},
"fallback": null,
"groupKey": "one-time",
"lines": [
{
"role": "main",
"quantity": 1,
"required": true,
"bind": {
"resolveBy": "fixed_variant",
"productId": "gid://shopify/Product/15092668957039",
"variantId": "gid://shopify/ProductVariant/53479762788719"
},
"purchase": {
"type": "one_time"
},
"priceSnapshot": {
"price": 40,
"compareAt": null,
"at": "2026-09-23T00:00:00Z"
},
"cogsRef": "cost:variant/53479762788719"
}
],
"pricing": {
"promisedFirstCharge": 40,
"promisedRenewal": null,
"compareAt": {
"value": 40,
"basis": "copy"
},
"shipping": {
"free": false,
"statedValue": null
},
"mechanisms": []
},
"gifts": {
"mode": "inherit"
},
"checkout": {
"mode": "checkout_direct"
},
"economics": {
"retentionRate": null
}
},
{
"key": "subscribe",
"label": "Subscribe and save",
"isDefault": true,
"surfaced": true,
"axisValues": {},
"unitCount": {
"value": 1,
"source": "declared"
},
"fallback": null,
"groupKey": "subscribe",
"lines": [
{
"role": "main",
"quantity": 1,
"required": true,
"bind": {
"resolveBy": "fixed_variant",
"productId": "gid://shopify/Product/15092668957039",
"variantId": "gid://shopify/ProductVariant/53479762788719"
},
"purchase": {
"type": "subscription",
"sellingPlanId": "gid://shopify/SellingPlan/708367581551",
"frequencyDays": 30,
"recurs": true
},
"priceSnapshot": {
"price": 40,
"compareAt": null,
"at": "2026-09-23T00:00:00Z"
},
"cogsRef": "cost:variant/53479762788719"
},
{
"role": "gift",
"quantity": 1,
"required": false,
"bind": {
"resolveBy": "fixed_variant",
"productId": "gid://shopify/Product/15092670660975",
"variantId": "gid://shopify/ProductVariant/53479764722031"
},
"purchase": {
"type": "one_time"
},
"priceSnapshot": {
"price": 18,
"compareAt": null,
"at": "2026-09-23T00:00:00Z"
},
"cogsRef": "cost:variant/53479764722031",
"gift": {
"anchorValue": 18,
"fulfilmentCostRef": "cost:gift/coffee",
"chargedPrice": 0
}
}
],
"pricing": {
"promisedFirstCharge": 32,
"promisedRenewal": 36,
"compareAt": {
"value": 40,
"basis": "copy"
},
"shipping": {
"free": true,
"statedValue": null
},
"mechanisms": [
{
"type": "discount_function",
"discountRef": null,
"roles": [
"main"
],
"value": {
"type": "percentage",
"amount": 20
},
"appliesTo": "first_charge"
},
{
"type": "selling_plan_adjustment",
"sellingPlanId": "gid://shopify/SellingPlan/708367581551",
"expectedAdjustments": [
{
"orderIndex": 2,
"value": {
"type": "percentage",
"amount": 10
}
}
]
}
]
},
"gifts": {
"mode": "inherit"
},
"checkout": {
"mode": "checkout_direct"
},
"economics": {
"retentionRate": null
}
}
],
"valueStack": [],
"relatedOffers": [],
"terms": {
"renewalDays": 30,
"guaranteeDays": null,
"trialDays": null,
"returnWindowDays": null,
"maxPerCustomer": null,
"subscriptionDiscountPersistence": "recurring"
},
"economicsDefaults": {
"retentionRate": 0.7,
"cacTarget": 0,
"minGmPct": 0,
"costProfile": "dtc-us"
}
}