What the numbers say
The sample is a half-size bag of coffee at $10.00, a quarter of the full price, shipped free. Its unit cost is $6.00, and the order pays the same pick and pack and a $9.29 label, so each sample loses $9.58.
A sampler who subscribes takes the subscription as its own playbook prices it: the first order keeps $0.20 and each renewal keeps $8.37. If 70.0% take each next order, that subscriber earns $19.34 over twelve orders. So 49.5% of samplers have to subscribe for the samples to pay for themselves.
Charging the $9.29 label on the sample changes that order to one that loses $1.02, and fewer visitors will take it. The half size and the quarter price are this page's terms, not sourced figures: a sample that costs less to make or to ship needs a smaller share.
The cost structure, and where it comes from
| Price | $40.00, a bag of coffee. Offer Suite's dev store catalog |
|---|---|
| Unit cost | $12.00. “Single Bag: price 40.00, unit cost 12.0 · mug gift: unit cost 4.0, compare-at 18.00” Offer Suite's dev store catalog |
| Pick and pack | $3.20 per order and $0.48 for each extra item. Fulfill.com, 3PL pricing benchmarks (The Fulfillment Advisor 2025 survey of 600+ warehouses), read 23 September 2026 |
| Shipping label | USPS Ground Advantage, commercial, Zone 5, by weight rounded up to the pound: 1 lb $9.29 · 2 lb $10.50 · 3 lb $12.12 · 4 lb $13.89 · 5 lb $14.53. Packed weight is an assumption: 0.8 lb per unit. USPS Notice 123, USPS Ground Advantage Commercial, Zone 5 (effective 4 October 2026), read 13 October 2026 |
| Card fees | 2.9% + $0.30 per order: Shopify Payments' online rate for a standard card on the Basic plan in the United States. Higher plans pay a lower rate, and premium cards a higher one. Shopify's pricing page for the United States, online standard card rates, read 12 October 2026 Rates by plan and country |
| Refund reserve | 5%, Offer Suite's default assumption for consumables. NRF's all-category figure for online sales is 19.3%, but consumables are rarely returned; use your own rate. |
| Gift | A mug: unit cost $4.00, retail $18.00. The dev store's mug gift: unit cost $4.00, compare-at $18.00. |
The offer, as an agent writes it
An agent writes this offer as one document for Offer Suite's API, validated against the offer schema. Below is one option of it: what the buyer gets and the price it promises. Offer Suite checks with a real cart that checkout charges exactly the prices above.
Show one option 2 options · excerpt
{
"key": "sample",
"display": {
"title": "Sample"
},
"lines": [
{
"role": "main",
"quantity": 1,
"purchase": {
"type": "one_time"
}
}
],
"pricing": {
"promise": {
"firstChargeCents": 1000,
"renewalChargeCents": null
}
}
}How Offer Suite validates, versions and publishes a document like this one: offer documents.
Questions
Is a sample-to-subscription offer profitable for coffee brands?
On these costs each half-size sample at $10.00, shipped free, loses $9.58, and a subscriber earns $19.34 over twelve orders at 70.0% retention. The offer is profitable when enough samplers subscribe to cover every sample sent.
How many samplers have to subscribe for coffee brands?
At 50.0% retention, no share is enough. At 70.0% retention, 49.5%. At 85.0% retention, 24.1%.