What the numbers say
Two subscriptions, both shipped free. The deep plan takes 40% off the first order ($24.00) and 10% off each renewal ($36.00). The flat plan takes 20% off every order ($32.00). The deep plan's first order loses $2.69 and each renewal keeps $8.37; the flat plan's first order keeps $4.68 and each renewal keeps $4.68.
So the deep plan starts $7.37 behind and earns $3.69 more on every renewal a subscriber takes. If 70.0% take each next order, its subscriber earns $16.45 over twelve orders, where the flat plan's earns $15.38, and has caught up by order 7.
The deeper discount is there to win sign-ups. At that retention, to earn what the flat plan earns, it can lose 6.5% of its sign-ups. Retention decides between the two: the table shows three rates.
The cost structure, and where it comes from
| Price | $40.00, a bag of coffee. Offer Suite's dev store catalog |
|---|---|
| Unit cost | $12.00. “Single Bag: price 40.00, unit cost 12.0 · mug gift: unit cost 4.0, compare-at 18.00” Offer Suite's dev store catalog |
| Pick and pack | $3.20 per order and $0.48 for each extra item. Fulfill.com, 3PL pricing benchmarks (The Fulfillment Advisor 2025 survey of 600+ warehouses), read 23 September 2026 |
| Shipping label | USPS Ground Advantage, commercial, Zone 5, by weight rounded up to the pound: 1 lb $9.29 · 2 lb $10.50 · 3 lb $12.12 · 4 lb $13.89 · 5 lb $14.53. Packed weight is an assumption: 0.8 lb per unit. USPS Notice 123, USPS Ground Advantage Commercial, Zone 5 (effective 4 October 2026), read 13 October 2026 |
| Card fees | 2.9% + $0.30 per order: Shopify Payments' online rate for a standard card on the Basic plan in the United States. Higher plans pay a lower rate, and premium cards a higher one. Shopify's pricing page for the United States, online standard card rates, read 12 October 2026 Rates by plan and country |
| Refund reserve | 5%, Offer Suite's default assumption for consumables. NRF's all-category figure for online sales is 19.3%, but consumables are rarely returned; use your own rate. |
| Gift | A mug: unit cost $4.00, retail $18.00. The dev store's mug gift: unit cost $4.00, compare-at $18.00. |
The offer, as an agent writes it
An agent writes this offer as one document for Offer Suite's API, validated against the offer schema. Below is one option of it: what the buyer gets and the price it promises. Offer Suite checks with a real cart that checkout charges exactly the prices above.
Show one option 2 options · excerpt
{
"key": "deep-first-order",
"display": {
"title": "40% off your first order"
},
"lines": [
{
"role": "main",
"quantity": 1,
"purchase": {
"type": "subscription",
"intervalDays": 30
}
}
],
"pricing": {
"promise": {
"firstChargeCents": 2400,
"renewalChargeCents": 3600
}
}
}How Offer Suite validates, versions and publishes a document like this one: offer documents.
Questions
Is a deep first-order subscription discount profitable for coffee brands?
On these costs the first order at 40% off loses $2.69 and each renewal at 10% off keeps $8.37. Over twelve orders a subscriber earns $5.68 at 50.0% retention, earns $16.45 at 70.0% retention, earns $36.80 at 85.0% retention.
Should coffee brands discount a subscription's first order or every order?
Per subscriber, on these costs: at 50.0% retention the flat discount earns more ($9.36 against $5.68); at 70.0% retention the deep first-order discount earns more ($16.45 against $15.38); at 85.0% retention the deep first-order discount earns more ($36.80 against $26.76). The deep discount also has to be judged on the sign-ups it adds.