---
title: "What-if analysis: definition, formula and example"
description: "Recomputing an offer's profit with one input changed, such as a cost or a price, and everything else held as it is today."
url: https://offersuite.io/glossary/what-if-analysis
updated: 2026-10-13
---

# What-if analysis

Recomputing an offer's profit with one input changed, such as a cost or a price, and everything else held as it is today.

## In plain words

A what-if analysis asks what an offer would earn if one thing were different. The supplier raises the unit cost. The label goes up. The bundle discount is cut from 15% to 10%. You change that input and recompute, leaving everything else alone.

Its value is that it isolates the effect. Conversion and the mix of options are held at what you see today, so the answer is what the change itself is worth, before any change in how customers behave.

## Formula

- Effect = profit per visitor with the changed input − profit per visitor today, at today's conversion and mix

## Worked example

An offer shows the single bag and the three-bag bundle to 1,000 visitors: 20 buy the single and 12 the bundle. Today that earns $0.88 per visitor.

What if the bag's unit cost rose from $12.00 to $13.50? The engine reprices both options, to $13.86 and $43.56 per order, and puts the offer at $0.80 per visitor. Conversion would have to rise 10.5% to make up for it.

### The example order

A $40.00 bag of coffee, shipped free, every cost counted

Revenue $40.00 to contribution margin $15.36 (38.4%)

Revenue

$40.00

Cost of goods

−$12.00

Pick and pack

−$1.18

Packaging

−$0.50

Shipping label

−$7.50

Card fee per order

−$0.30

Refunds

−$2.00

Card processing

−$1.16

Contribution margin

$15.36

2 declared kinds cost nothing on this option

Computed by the margin engine in Offer Suite's own code, in whole cents, from a $40.00 bag of coffee with a $12.00 unit cost.

## A what-if is not a forecast of behaviour

It holds customers still. It tells you what a cost or price change is worth if exactly the same people buy exactly the same options. Whether they would is a separate question, and only a test answers it.

## Using it

Run a what-if before you accept a supplier's increase, change a carrier or redesign an offer. Change one input at a time, so you know what caused the difference. Then use the result to set the bar: how much better the new offer has to convert before it is worth shipping.

## In Offer Suite

In Offer Suite a what-if is a forecast or a realized figure recomputed with some costs overridden. The simulator compares a draft with the live version at the conversion each option has today.

Source: Offer Suite's offer simulator.

## Related

- [Glossary **Glossary of offer economics** The terms behind offer profit, defined plainly with their formulas and a worked number: contribution margin, profit per visitor, break-even lift and more.](https://offersuite.io/glossary)
- [Calculator **Offer option calculator: profit per visitor** Compare up to three offer options on profit per visitor, margin per order times conversion, and see the conversion lift each one needs to match the best.](https://offersuite.io/calculators/offer-option-profit-per-visitor)
- [Calculator **Gift with purchase profit calculator** What a free gift costs per order, after its unit cost, its extra pick and its handling, and how much conversion it has to add to pay for itself.](https://offersuite.io/calculators/gift-with-purchase-profit)
- [Glossary **Forecast profit: definition, formula and example** The profit an offer should make per order or per visitor, worked out from its prices and costs before any order exists.](https://offersuite.io/glossary/forecast-profit)
- [Glossary **Break-even conversion lift: definition and formula** How much more an offer has to convert to earn, per visitor, what another offer earns: the gap a cheaper offer, a gift or a discount must close.](https://offersuite.io/glossary/break-even-conversion-lift)
- [Glossary **Sensitivity analysis: definition and formula** Moving each input of a plan up and down by the same step to see which one changes the result most. It shows where to spend effort.](https://offersuite.io/glossary/sensitivity-analysis)