--- title: "Churn rate: definition, formula and example" description: "The share of subscribers who leave in a period, or between one order and the next. The complement of retention, and it compounds the same way." url: https://offersuite.io/glossary/churn-rate updated: 2026-10-13 --- # Churn rate The share of subscribers who leave in a period, or between one order and the next. The complement of retention, and it compounds the same way. ## In plain words Churn rate is the share of subscribers you lose. Measured per order, it is the share who received one order and did not take the next. Measured per month, it is the share active at the start of the month who had cancelled by the end. It is retention seen from the other side, and small changes in it matter more than they look. Churn applies again at every renewal, to whoever is left. Five points more churn does not cost five percent of a subscriber's value. It costs far more, because every later renewal is lost too. ## Formula - Churn rate = 1 − retention rate - Expected renewals over a lifetime at constant churn = (1 − churn) ÷ churn ## Worked example At 15% churn per order, a coffee subscriber is expected to take 5.7 renewals over a lifetime. At 20% churn, 4.0. Over the first twelve orders the engine puts the subscriber's expected profit at $58.90 at 15% churn and $46.50 at 20%. ### The example order A $40.00 bag of coffee, shipped free, every cost counted Revenue $40.00 to contribution margin $15.36 (38.4%) Revenue $40.00 Cost of goods −$12.00 Pick and pack −$1.18 Packaging −$0.50 Shipping label −$7.50 Card fee per order −$0.30 Refunds −$2.00 Card processing −$1.16 Contribution margin $15.36 2 declared kinds cost nothing on this option Computed by the margin engine in Offer Suite's own code, in whole cents, from a $40.00 bag of coffee with a $12.00 unit cost. ## Monthly churn is not per-order churn A subscription that ships every two months has half as many chances to churn in a year as a monthly one. Comparing a monthly churn figure with a per-order one, or across different delivery intervals, compares different things. Say which you mean. ## Using it Measure churn by order number: first to second, second to third, and so on. Early churn is the highest and the most worth fixing. Split subscribers who cancelled from those whose payment failed, because a failed payment can often be recovered and a decision to leave usually cannot. ## Related - [Glossary **Glossary of offer economics** The terms behind offer profit, defined plainly with their formulas and a worked number: contribution margin, profit per visitor, break-even lift and more.](https://offersuite.io/glossary) - [Calculator **Subscription first order vs renewal calculator** Margin on a subscription's first order and on each renewal, and the expected profit per subscriber over time at your retention, against a one-time buyer.](https://offersuite.io/calculators/subscription-first-order-vs-renewal) - [Calculator **Subscription payback calculator: CAC and churn** How much a subscriber's first order loses against what you paid to acquire them, how many renewals it takes to earn that back with churn, and in which month.](https://offersuite.io/calculators/subscription-payback) - [Glossary **Retention rate: definition, formula and example** Of subscribers who received an order, the share who receive the next one. Each renewal's profit is weighted by it, so small changes compound quickly.](https://offersuite.io/glossary/retention-rate) - [Glossary **Renewal curve: definition, formula and example** The renewal rate at each order number: who takes the second order, the third, the fourth. It starts low and settles higher as the casual leave.](https://offersuite.io/glossary/renewal-curve) - [Glossary **Subscriber lifetime: definition and formula** How many renewals a subscriber is expected to take before leaving. Churn puts a ceiling on it, and on what a subscriber can ever earn.](https://offersuite.io/glossary/subscriber-lifetime)